By Mustefa Musse Ebro

In Western democracies, even minor questions about a politician’s credibility can have significant consequences. Any inconsistency in their positions, no matter how small, is often seized upon and exploited by their opponents. For instance, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has faced criticism for perceived inconsistencies in her political stances. Similarly, in Canada, a leadership contender for the Liberal Party aiming to replace Justin Trudeau may face scrutiny for any deviation in their positions.

This dynamic is particularly relevant in the Oromo political context. Jawar Mohammed, a prominent Oromo leader, has argued that Ethiopia is on the brink of collapse and portrays himself as the leader who can prevent this outcome. While some agree with his assessment, others view his position as mere rhetoric. Jawar’s shifting stance on Oromia’s relationship with Ethiopia has further fueled this debate. At one point, he advocated for Ethiopia’s withdrawal from Oromia. More recently, however, he has suggested that Oromia’s independence is not viable without Ethiopia. While this revised perspective resonates with some, a significant portion of Oromos continue to believe in the possibility of an independent Gadaa Republic if given the opportunity.

Political theory teaches us that for a seceding region to establish a sustainable and viable nation-state, it must meet several key criteria:

1. Sufficient Geographic Landmass: Does the new country have adequate territory?

2. Population Size: Is there a large enough population to sustain the nation?

3. Natural Resources: Does the region have sufficient natural resources, both above and below ground, to support its economy?

4. Distinct Identity: Does the region possess a unique culture, identity, and language that differentiates it from the larger state it seeks to leave?

In the case of Oromia, the answer to all these questions appears to be affirmative. Oromia has vast land, a substantial population, abundant resources, and a distinct cultural and linguistic identity. Therefore, it is challenging for Jawar to convince a majority of Oromos to abandon their right to self-determination, including the possibility of secession.

Further complicating matters is Jawar’s relationship with the current government. Since his release from prison, he has appeared to tacitly support the ruling party, arguing that it represents the Oromo nation and deserves support for its efforts. Jawar justified his lack of active opposition by claiming that his involvement might exacerbate Ethiopia’s already volatile situation, likening it to adding fuel to a fire.

However, his recent shift to openly campaigning against the ruling party and, in particular, the Prime Minister, has led many to question the sincerity of his motives. Some critics argue that Jawar’s newfound opposition stems from a personal loss of benefits, respect, or agreements he may have previously had with the government. These critics suggest that his current actions are less about genuine political reform and more about reestablishing his political influence within the Oromo and Ethiopian political spheres.

Yet, despite these questions and criticisms, Jawar has once again demonstrated his unmatched ability to mobilize, organize, and deliver his messages with clarity and force. His recent actions have also served as a reminder to the Ethiopian government that he remains a formidable political force. Regardless of the doubts surrounding his intentions, Jawar has proven that he is not a figure to be underestimated.

Ultimately, the hope remains for peace and stability for the Oromo people and for Ethiopia as a whole.