By Aliye Geleto 

Introduction

Abiy Ahmed has been the Prime Minister of Ethiopia since April 2018 and has marked his tenure with significant reforms, including peace initiatives, economic liberalization, and political transformations. However, his administration has faced numerous challenges, leading to mounting opposition and credibility issues.

Below are 15 points that could potentially explain why Abiy Ahmed might lose power, framed within a broader socio-political context.

### 1. **Ethnic Federalism Challenges**

Ethiopia’s political landscape is primarily defined by ethnic federalism, a system that grants significant autonomy to ethnic groups. While this approach was designed to mitigate ethnic tensions, it has arguably exacerbated divisions, leading to persistent inter-ethnic conflicts. Abiy’s inability to effectively manage these tensions has heightened discontent among various ethnic groups, jeopardizing his position.

### 2. **Tigray Conflict Consequences**

The military confrontations in the Tigray region, which began in November 2020, have drawn widespread condemnation for a humanitarian catastrophe involving mass displacement and allegations of war crimes. The conflict’s prolonged nature and the resultant humanitarian crisis have tarnished Abiy’s international reputation and could contribute to his political vulnerability.

### 3. **Political Repression**

Initially viewed as a reformer, Abiy has faced criticism for reverting to authoritarian tactics, including crackdowns on dissent and media freedoms. Political repression can provoke backlash and grow opposition movements, undermining his support base and potentially leading to a loss of power.

### 4. **Deteriorating Human Rights Situation**

Human rights organizations have raised alarms about the violent suppression of protests, arbitrary detentions, and torture. The erosion of civil rights not only alienates the public but also invites international scrutiny and sanctions that can weaken a leader’s legitimacy.

### 5. **Economic Challenges and Inflation**

Ethiopia’s economy has faced significant challenges, including double-digit inflation and high unemployment rates. Economic instability can lead to public dissatisfaction, eroding support for the government. As citizens face rising cost of living and scarcity of resources, the government’s perceived inability to address these issues may precipitate demands for leadership change.

### 6. **Rise of Ethnic Nationalism**

The resurgence of ethnic nationalism poses a significant threat to Abiy’s administration. Movements advocating for greater autonomy and rights for various ethnic groups have grown increasingly vocal, challenging his government’s authority and leading to increased competition for power.

### 7. **Split within the Ruling Party**

The ruling Prosperity Party, formed from the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), has experienced internal fractures. Discontent among party members, particularly from the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) faction, can destabilize governance and create an environment conducive to leadership challenges.

### 8. **Youth Disenchantment**

Ethiopia has a youthful population that has become increasingly disenchanted with the political status quo. With expectations for reform unmet, young people may turn to alternative political movements, potentially supporting opposition leaders or forming new mobilizations against the current administration

### 9. **Political Unrest and Protests**

The country has faced repeated protests against Abiy’s government, often resulting in violent crackdowns. Persistent unrest erodes government credibility and can serve as a catalyst for more organized dissident movements, ultimately challenging Abiy’s hold on power.

### 10. **Discontent in the Amhara Region**

The Amhara region has seen tensions and violence surrounding issues of identity and ethnic federalism. Disruptions in this pivotal region could shift the political balance in Ethiopia and contribute to the destabilization of Abiy’s government, given the region’s historical significance in Ethiopian politics.

### 11. **Weakening International Support**

Although Abiy was initially lauded on the global stage, changing circumstances and the international community’s response to the Tigray conflict may weaken his foreign support. A decrease in diplomatic and economic backing from key international players could significantly impact his government’s ability to sustain itself.

### 12. **Corruption Scandals**

Allegations of corruption within the government can undermine public trust in leadership. If Abiy’s administration is perceived as failing to tackle corruption effectively, it may amplify calls for his resignation and invigorate opposition efforts.

### 13. **Security Deterioration**

Ethiopia’s security situation has become increasingly precarious, with escalating violence from various factions, such as the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Declining security could make the public view Abiy’s administration as incapable of ensuring stability, leading to political upheaval.

### 14. **Media Manipulation and Information Control**

While governments often control the narrative during crises, excessive media suppression can lead to public backlash. If the narrative emerges that Abiy’s administration is mismanaging the country, it could result in loss of confidence and support, culminating in demands for leadership change.

### 15. **Legacy of Unmet Promises**

Despite the initial promise of democratic reforms, many citizens feel their hopes for significant political change have been dashed. If the electorate perceives that Abiy’s government has failed to fulfill its commitments, it may lead to diminished support and calls for new leadership through electoral processes.

### Conclusion

Though Abiy Ahmed’s tenure as Prime Minister has been characterized by significant transformations, it is also marked by substantial challenges that threaten his power. The interplay of ethnic tensions, economic difficulties, political repression, and evolving public sentiments will be critical factors shaping the future of his administration. As Ethiopia continues to navigate these complex issues, the potential for Abiy to lose power looms, demanding both immediate attention and long-term solutions to foster stability and unity in the country. Each of these points underscores the necessity for reform, dialogue, and responsible governance in addressing Ethiopia’s multifaceted crises.