Category Archives: Finfinne

Oromo Forces: New Democratic Strategies After 2018

How did 2018 peace deal alter ODF political goals?
The 2018 peace deal fundamentally shifted the political goals of the Oromian Defense Force (ODF) and its allied groups, most notably the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), from an emphasis on armed struggle and potential secession toward renewed engagement with federal politics, negotiation, and peaceful transformation within Ethiopia.[11][12]

Emphasis on Negotiation and Peaceful Participation
Following the 2018 peace deal—brokered as part of a broader national reconciliation—the ODF and OLF renounced armed resistance, returned to Ethiopia from exile, and announced a willingness to pursue Oromo objectives through legal, peaceful, and democratic means. This marked a crucial shift from decades of armed opposition to dialogue and electoral participation.[12]

Commitment to Justice and Democratic Reform
The ODF and its political allies reoriented their platform around justice and democratization rather than outright independence. They advocated for dialogue aimed at ending repression, safeguarding human rights, and building an inclusive federal system. The peace deal made negotiation over Oromo grievances, state autonomy, and fair power-sharing a central feature of their demands.[13][12]

Internal Divisions and New Strategies
The peace process also brought internal tensions—some factions supported disarmament and rapprochement with the government, while others (notably the OLA) argued the federal government failed to meet peace commitments, thus resuming armed resistance. Nevertheless, the declared political track for mainstream ODF/OLF post-2018 prioritized peaceful reform and legal advocacy within Ethiopia’s system.[14][15]

Dialogue on Self-Determination
Post-deal, political demands have been reframed around a self-determination process via constitutional and democratic mechanisms, rather than unilateral secession. The goals moved toward ensuring meaningful autonomy for Oromia and broad democratic reforms to benefit all Ethiopians, as opposed to exclusive focus on armed struggle for independence.[11][12]

In summary, the 2018 peace agreement redefined ODF political goals—shifting them from militant separatism to a platform emphasizing peaceful negotiation, democratic participation, and structural reform of the Ethiopian state.[15][12][14][11]

Sources
[1] Is South Sudan’s Peace Deal Falling Apart Again? https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/is-south-sudans-peace-deal-falling-apart-again/
[2] Death by Peace: How South Sudan’s Peace Agreement … https://africanarguments.org/2022/01/death-by-peace-how-south-sudans-peace-agreement-ate-the-grassroots/
[3] BRIEFING: All you need to know about South Sudan’s … https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2018/08/14/briefing-all-you-need-know-about-south-sudan-s-new-power-sharing-accord
[4] Why South Sudan’s attempts at peace continue to fail https://theconversation.com/why-south-sudans-attempts-at-peace-continue-to-fail-126846
[5] The last peace deal for South Sudan? https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-last-peace-deal-for-south-sudan
[6] South Sudan’s peace deal at risk of collapse without … https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/06/south-sudans-peace-deal-risk-collapse-without-stronger-regional-action-warns
[7] South Sudan’s shaky peace is at risk of collapse. Can it be … https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/04/south-sudans-shaky-peace-risk-collapse-can-it-be-saved
[8] South Sudan president signs peace deal with rebel leader https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/9/12/south-sudan-president-signs-peace-deal-with-rebel-leader
[9] The shaky peace deal in South Sudan https://www.freiheit.org/sub-saharan-africa/shaky-peace-deal-south-sudan
[10] Landmark South Sudan deal offers hope, but trust ‘still … https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/09/1019242
[11] Mission – Oromo Liberation Front https://oromoliberationfront.org/english/mission/
[12] Country policy and information note: Oromos, the … https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ethiopia-country-policy-and-information-notes/country-policy-and-information-note-oromos-the-oromo-liberation-front-and-the-oromo-liberation-army-ethiopia-march-2022-accessible
[13] Peace—and justice—remain elusive in Oromia https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2024/10/17/peace-and-justice-remain-elusive-in-oromia/
[14] Oromo Liberation Front – Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org › wiki › Oromo_Liberation_Front https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oromo_Liberation_Front
[15] About the Oromo Liberation Army | OLF-OLA https://www.olf-olahq.org/about

Seenaa Girmaa Gamadaa: Fakkeenya Toleeyyummaa

Girmaa Gamadaa akkamitti yaadanna?

Girmaa Gamadaa Oromiyaa keessatti dhalatee guddate. Yeroo umuriin isaa dargagoometti garuu lammii isaa akka tajaajiuuf haalli siyaasaa ture hin hayyamneef. Fedhii fi dharraan waa’ee Oromoo fi Oromummaa guddisuu garuu isa biraa hin dhabamne. Inumaayyuu dharraan toleeyyummaa kun Girmaa waliin biyyaa bahee fakkeenya toleeyyummaa Oromoo ta’e.

GIRMAA GAMADAA: Fakkeenya Toleeyyummaa Oromoo

Toleeyyummaan aadaa tola hawaasaaf hojjachuu dha. Aadaan kun hojiilee hawaasaa fi biyya fayyadu hojjachuu dha. Namoonni hundi dandeettii toleeyyummaa qaban; garuu namni hundi jiruu fi jireenya ofii bira darbe kan hawaasa biraa fayyadu hin hojjatu. Namootni kennaa kana waliin dhalatan garuu of dhoksuu hin danda’an. Hiree kana yeroo argatan waan saba isaanii beeksisuu fi guddisu hojjachuu jalqabu.

Namoota Oromoon akkanatti qabaatee ture, yeroo gabaabaa keessatti dhabe Girmaa Gammadaa akka fakkeenyaatti ilaaluu dandeenya. Girmaan biyya Oromiyaa irraa sababa siyaasaatiin dhiibamee biyya baqannaa Keeniyaa, Naayiroobii, keessa jiraatee ture. Sana booda biyya Kanaadaa, magaalaa Torontoo keessatti qubate.

Yeroo san irraa kaasee hanqina Oromoo karaa beeksisaa fi odeeffannoo jiru furuuf hojii jalqabe. Yeroo gabaabaa keessatti sirboota Oromoo karaa addaddaa beeksisuu, postara addaddaa hojjachuun akka guddatan taasise. Hawaasa keessattis beeksisa ayyaanotaa fi taatotaa qopheessuun akka beekamu gochaa ture. Waldaalee Oromoo addaddaaf beeksisa hojjachaa ture. Waldaan Waaqeffannaa akka beekamuu fi guddatu dhaadhessa hedduu qopheessuun qooda guddaa gumaache. Ayyaanni Irreechaa akka sadarkaa addunyaatti beekamuu fi guddatu gahee olaanaa gumaachaa ture. Ijaarsa Oromoo kan akka OMN, waldaa ispoortii fi ijaarsa hawaasa Oromoo mara keessatti hirmaataa ture. Seenaa qabsaa’ota Oromoo kan akka Jaal Bureyesssoo fa’aa akka ummanni Oromoo beekanii fi faan-dhahii isaanii hordofaniif hojii bu’ura qabu hojjachuun yaadatama.

Jawaar Mohaammad gumaacha Girmaa OMNf godhe of kennuu ol’aanaa ta’uu yaadateera. “Boqonnaa Girmaa Gammadaa dhaga’uun gaddisiisaa dha. Hiriyaa dhugaa fi tajaajilaa ofittummaa hawaasa keenyaa dhabneerra. Girmaan namoota kutannoo fi wal irraa hin cinne waggoota kurnan oliif waliin hojjechuuf mirga argadhe keessaa tokko ture. Guyyaa tokko irraa kaasee, bu’aa ba’ii hunda keessa nu waliin ture. Nagaa siif haa boqottu obboleessa. Maatii isaa fi hawaasa Toroontootiif jajjabina onneen qaba.”

Girmaan erga Oromiyaa irraa dhufee waggoota 20 dura jechuun ni danda’ama, filannoo nyaata galaanaa irratti mala michuu fi odeeffannoo qabuun maamiltoota tajaajilaa tureera.

Girmaan dhukkuba ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis ykn Lou Gehrig’s disease) jedhamu kan baay’ee hin mul’anne fi jireenya namaa jijjiiru qabamee ture. ALS dhukkuba niwurooloojikaalaa kan niwuroonota sochii qaamaa miidhudha; motor neurons seelii narvii sammuu fi lafee dugdaatti sochii maashaalee fedhii isaaniitiin to’atanidha. Qorannoo kun Girmaan kana booda akka durii hojjetee maatii isaa guutuu hin danda’u jechuudha.

Kana booda hojii tola ooltummaa Giddugala Hawaasa Oromootiif graphic designer ta’ee itti fufuus ta’e fedhii suuraa isaa hordofuu hin danda’u jechuudha. Girmaan dandeettiin suuraa ka’uu isaa Maraatoonii Toroontoo Waterfront, Afrofest Toronto fi African Fashion Week Toronto irratti uwwisa isaa irratti mul’ateera.

Girmaan dhukkuba narviitiin wal’aanamaa ture. Haa ta’u malee yaalaan fayyuu hin dandeenye. Adoolessa 4,2024 addunyaa kanarraa boqote. Girmaan abbaa mucaa tokkoo ture; haadha warraa fi mucaa isaatiif jajjabina hawwina.

Namoota akka Hawwinee Alamayehutiif Girmaan gorsaa obbolummaa ture.”Sabboonaa, ogeessa cimaa, goota namaa, anaaf obboleessa gaarii ofii irraa si dhabuun gadda jabaa jechaa ol ta’edha.”

Girmaan nama guddaa karaa hedduun jabaa ture. Bu’aa ba’ii Girmaa Gamadaa hawaasa biratti akka gaariitti yaadatamu Tulluu Liiban ragaa ba’aniiru. “Waggoota kurnan 2 darban hojiiwwan kalaqaa isaatiin kaayyoo Oromoo beeksisuuf urjii ifaa ta’ee kan ture Girmaa Hordofaa Gemeda, yeroo malee Ameerikaa Kaabaa keessatti du’aan addunyaa kanarraa boqote, dhibee isaa irraa ni fayya jedhee abdate bira darbee Kan nama dhibu ilmi namaa gad of qabuu fi qulqulluun kun hin jiru.”

Dandeettii hojiiwwan isaa tolaan fedhiidhaan agarsiisaa tureera. Kana malees Girmaan meeshaalee maxxanfamuu danda’an kanneen akka T-Shirt, caps, banners, artifacts, logos etc. dizaayinii fi gulaaluu kooreegiraafii fi suuraa irrattis gumaacha godheera Girmaan Oromo keessatti taateewwan barbaachisoo ta’an hedduu galmeessee jira. Gumaacha gatii guddaa fi kutannoo umurii isaa guutuu ummata Oromoof kenneen dhabame.”

Girmaan har’a nu waliin hin jiru. Hojiin toleeyyummaa isaa bara baraan nu waliin jiraata. Namoonni akka Birhaanuu Olaanaa ogeessa Oromoo baay’ee of kenne ta’uu yaadatu.

“Girman ilma Oromoo cimaa ture. Ogeessota akkanaa yeroo barbaannu halkanii guyyaa nu gargaaraa akka ture ogeessa kaameeraa fi giraafiksii cimaa turee fi takkaa kaffaltii nu gaafatee hin beeku; kaffaltii tajaajila isaaf kaffalu.”

THE OROMO NATION HAVE RIGHTS TO CELEBRATE IRREECHA FREE FROM ATTACK

(A4O, Press Release, 30 Sept 2020) We support the right of the Oromo people in their home state of Oromia to peacefully celebrate one of the most important Oromo cultural holidays, Irreecha, on October 3-4, 2020.  Each year, massive crowds gather in Finfinnee and Bishoftuu, Oromia for the Oromo annual festival, Irreechaa.  

The Irreecha -Oromo Thanksgiving Day, has gone on for many years to celebrate the harvest season. Irreechaa is celebrated as a sign of reciprocating Waaqa in the form of providing praise for what they got in the past and is also a forum of prayer for the future.  In the past, it has also been a forum for peaceful political protest and expression.  In Oromo culture, both types of peaceful demonstrations are fully permissible.

This year’s festival, on October 3 and 4, occurs against the backdrop of escalating tensions and unrest in Oromia. Both federal and regional officials have stated that they will limit participation and political expression in this longstanding peaceful celebration. What is perhaps most concerning is the increased military-style presence of security forces in Oromia.

Our Appeals

We view the government’s attempts to limit participation in Irreechaa with suspicion. Though, reasonable restrictions on public gatherings may be justified during this pandemic period, the government should show restraint at upcoming festival.  

In this forum, the Oromo people have every right to peacefully voice their opposition to the government’s policies and governance.  Any effort by the security forces to stop such free speech should be considered a limit on freedom of speech and unacceptable.

We urge caution by Ethiopian security forces and respect for citizen rights to avoid a repeat of 2016 attack and aggression that left hundreds of dead.

The Oromo nation have rights to celebrate Irreechaa free from any repression and attach.

Thanks to God for all the blessing

This festival is a spectacular show of cultural, historical, and natural beautification in their full glory at the height of the season. It has spawned somewhat of a science of knowing just when the blooms will peak at blooms and decline, depending on the wind, rain, and sunshine they get.

Now it is the beginning of 2020 Irreechaa celebrations, the premier holiday of the Oromo people marks the end of the dark-rainy season and the beginning of a blossom harvest season. The event is very important for our nation as it brings the nation together and helps to connect and share experiences in their day to day life.

The theme of this year Irreechaa is “Moving Forward: A Year of Consensus” in which it aims to celebrate Irreechaa as a medium for bringing all Oromias together to promote a process of our tradition group decision-making where the members are willing to work together to find the solution that meets the needs of Oromo people.

Together, we can make our destiny better everywhere.

Yours faithfully,

Dabessa W Gemelal,

Director, Advocacy for Oromia

Reform From ‘Fake Democracy To No Democracy’ And Horrific Inhumanity Of The Ethiopian Version!

By: Workineh Torben, PhD & Dessalegn Guyo,PhD

Democracy

File photo: The Ethiopian soldiers standing on the neck of a dying student (A) and brutally kicking the necks and throats of a group of students (B) in Oromia region of Ethiopia. The lastest report by the rights group Amnesty International Issued Friday, May 29, 2020 a report that displayed the endless Ethiopian’s security forces of extrajudical killings, mass detantion, massive human right violations, proprety damages, burning unharvested crops, animals, wildlife, coffe plants, forest and homes in the restive Oromia region as the chemeleon reformist prime minister was awarded the ‘Nobel Peace Prize’.

New York Times reported about Mr. Abiy Ahmad’s factious reform of Ethiopia in the Horn (Matina, Oct. 11, 2019). Here are few of the facts, which are ironically incredible to learn the confusing political atmosphere of the African country where human right violations are still unbelievable. Apparently, the political transformation and the wrongly hailed reformers transformed the fake democracy of the TPLF regime to no democracy at all.  Amnesty International highlighted a few credible facts related to the dysfunctional leadership of Abiy Ahmad in its latest report (amnesty.org/Index: AFR 25/2358/2020). However, the PM of Ethiopia blatantly disagreed with the quality report of Amnesty International. That is never a surprise to hear from Mr. Abiy, who has been committing shocking crimes against peaceful citizens including kids, elementary students, high school students (please look at the pictures A and B, gives the glimpse of  shocking human right violations in the Ethiopian Empire but it is immoral and against the human value to list numerous images which we cannot post in public). Over 35, 000 students were dismissed from Universities in the entire nation  just for being Oromo.

Abiy hijacked the multigenerational movement of the Oromo youth by unique political strategies. He started as a sympathizer of the marginalized people and representative of the Oromos until he secured power. The international community barley understands the Ethiopian politics, because it is complex and unique to the rest of the world. Most writers, bloggers and owners of medial are the beneficiaries of the dysfunctional system. Only a few are honestly describing the nature and the underlying problems of the Ethiopian Empire. For example, Amnesty International  recently disclosed credible facts related to several in humane killings by security forces of  Mr. Abiy Ahmad.

The Ethiopian politics is dysfunctional by nature because it was built on the pretext and pretentious  political elites rhetoric supported by misguided powers. The political dramas of Ethiopia need a sincere attention of the international community. It is becoming the most disgraceful and dangerous for peaceful citizens and the Horn of Africa. The government of Ethiopia is terrorizing Oromos (Human Rights Abuses Committed by the Ethiopian Army in Different Parts of Ethiopia); the Oromos have been under command post since Abiy Ahmad took office, and at this critical time of Coronavirus pandemic, internet and telephone access has been limited or sometimes completely disconnected in the entire Oromia. The world must tell us if the definition of terrorism has a different meaning than what is happening to over 55 million Oromos where human is daily killed, tortured, even beheaded and thrown to wild scavengers like hyenas?

The prime minister of Ethiopia was a key security personnel of the Ethiopian ruling party Ethiopian People revolution Democratic front (EPRDF) who did not remember his regimes shocking crimes. He systematically manipulated the international community through systematic approaches and shrewdly trained political games of making plagiarized speeches directly taken from intelligent politicians like Barak Obama’s

or

Then he was wrongly praised by the western communities. Some of the purposeless politicians nominated him for noble peace prize that he won in early stage of his governance.

Abiy Ahmad is implementing terrorizing strategies which are chronic problems of Ethiopia.  He is moving Ethiopia back to where it had been in 1950 and 1960s. His deception is incredibly dangerous that has been resulting in massive atrocity against humanity and significant violations of basic human rights; and his falling power is primarily restricted to the capital and to the state-controlled media.

Since Abiy Ahmed came to power the country’s ruling pattern has changed from pseudo civil administration to complete military marshals which evade the constitution of the country. He has been still using illegal ‘Command Post’ rule to control the most marginalized Oromos. The Oromo people are determined majority citizens of the country to dismantle lawlessness.  He has been using all kind of inhumane strategies under his command post to weaken the refusal of the desperate and resolute Oromos for freedom. Abiy committed several unique crimes way more than the previous murderous tyrants; for example, his untrained security indiscriminately killing children, elderly, helpless mothers, students, entire family; his national Airforce is bombarding farmers and their cattle, burning unharvested crops, wildlife, and coffee plants. Whenever they are committing crimes, they cut all kind of public communication systems, internet and telephone (wireless and landline) connections in the entire Oromia. As the result, significant number of Ethiopian citizens, particularly the Oromos barley heard about Coronavirus (COVID-19). Clearly, the Ethiopian government is creating a dangerous territory where the emerging virus will continue to kill people and potentially keep the transmission of the deadly infections around the world.

The newest shameful political strategies of Abiy Ahmad are disgraceful and dangerous to the entire world.

The question that Abiy and his administration failed to understand is that ‘state terrorism’ can never be a wise strategy to unify and build a nation. Abiy himself publicly mention about the terrorism strategies of his previous TPLF led government during his parliament speeches; he publicly mentioned that the unsuccessful TPLF was terrorizing the people. We appreciated his honesty about that particular claim, in fact it was confirmed by WikiLeaks. The problem is, Abiy Ahmad repeated the same and even worst terrorism strategy. He failed to understand the fact that the multigenerational movement against inhumanity is unstoppable and will soon squib his regime easily. The Oromo people have been marginalized over 150 years and from the history of the naturally democratic Oromos that UNESCO registered in 2016, one can learn that as the tyrants get murderous against Oromos, the tougher and stronger they are becoming because their peaceful and welcoming mutual coexistence has been challenged Abiy’s misguided politics of hate.   His counterproductive approaches to govern in Oromia will remain the nightmare of the illusionist politician who became a ‘Nobel peace’ laureate at the expense of the fearless Oromos particularly the ‘Qeerroos’. Qeerroo is unmarried youth in Oromo language, unfortunately the youth who transformed the political atmosphere in the Horn are massively targeted by the fake ‘Nobel peace’ laureate.

The international community, and donors of the baseless instability generator government must realize the ultimate outcome of the massive human right violation in Ethiopia. It will be regrettable again. The impacts of the evil actions we see against Oromos is shameful and the lawlessness of Abiy regime is becoming catastrophic against human values in the Horn and it must be condemned by all nations who have interest to maintain peace in Ethiopia and the region.  We must fight lawlessness and we are calling the International community, United Nations, Human Rights Watch, International Legal Experts and interested individuals, groups or institutions to join our efforts to held criminals and massive human right violators accountable at the International Criminal Court (ICC). Abiy Ahmad hijacked the multigenerational movement to win a ‘Nobel prize, but he still prefers ignoring the importance of honest equality, democracy, respectful co-existence and collective respect to all human values. The world must tell us if there is a different definition of terrorism than what Abiy Ahmad is doing. He is designing a disgraceful suicidal network that will disintegrate the nation that is increasing the chances of inevitable civil war in Ethiopia.

Calling from Dr Ibrahim Amae Elemo: Stand in solidarity, fight for justice and fight to end the oppression

By Ibrahim Amae Elemo

Image may contain: one or more people, outdoor and nature

Dear all:

We have watched in anguish the senseless killings of innocent people in Western and Southern zones of Oromia under the illegitimate government of ODP, and now Prosperity Party of Abiy Ahmed and the government of kleptocrats.

We as a society that paid heavy sacrifices to fight injustices under TPLF rule should have never given their accomplices and stooges another chance to rule or transition Ethiopian people to democracy. They never knew or made to understand the basic principles of human dignity and the rights of people to live a life free from harassment and intimidation by forces loyal to the government.

For the last two years we have watched time and again, government sanctioned extrajudicial killings of innocent civilians and families of people who stood against injustices. We witnessed properties of business owners being destroyed or confiscated by paramilitary police and soldiers deployed to enforce the state of emergency. When all these horrendous crimes happened, the person at the helm of the government never publicly condemned the actions of the security personnels he deployed or acknowledged the widespread existence of such types of actions, nor did he promise to investigate or put forth a strategy to make sure that these types of senseless killings don’t happen again and again.

Some of the members of Opposition and the general public watched these crimes happeing in front of their eyes, hoped that a better day would come and that there is eventually going to be a free and fair election leading to a formation of a democratic and accountable government. Those hopes have become daydreams. The Oromo people have once again found themselves in a situation where there is no option left but to rise up in unison to end the vicious cycle of brutal killings, out cries for the regime to be held accountable for its actions and more of the same. The Oromo are left with no option but to defend itself against genocide and government sanctioned war to silence the general public and rule with iron fist.
Such efforts failed after long fight with past regimes and it will fail sooner with this government of kleptocrats and maniacs.

I as a person have come to believe that the only viable option left for our people is to get rid of the this brutal regime for once and for all by using all means at its disposal. We have to stand behind the Oromo Liberation Forces, mobilize resources to fund the men and women who put their lives in harms way to bring a better day for their people; and call for the opposition to denounce these senseless actions of the government paramilitary forces and call for protests nationwide where appropriate.

Enough is enough! This is a time not to denounce and cry for justice, but a time for actions to save the lives of the Oromo people against these blood thirsty prosperity Party led regime which is an authoritarian regime in its infant stage of creation. We Must end it! For the good of all peoples of Ethiopia.

We can’t stand by and watch our people being killed with impunity and its hope for Justice and democracy being wiped out day by day.

I said no to extrajudicial killings! I said enough is enough!

I hope you too would say the same and we join hands to not only be a voice for our people but a force to reckon with.

The Blood of the fallen innocent lives are calling for us to stand in solidarity and fight for justice and fight to end the oppression and make sure that they have not died in vain!
Kaayoo Qabna.

Ethiopia’s security forces accused of torture, evictions and killings – report

(A4O, 29 May 2020, Oromia) Prime minister Abiy Ahmed has been lauded for his democratic reforms. But Amnesty International are now urging him to investigate allegations of serious human rights abuses

A man waves an Oromo flag
 A man waves an Oromo flag as people from the community gather in Addis Ababa in October 2019, on the eve of Irreecha, their thanksgiving festival. Photograph: Yonas Tadesse/AFP

Ethiopia’s Nobel peace prize-winning prime minister Abiy Ahmed has been urged to investigate allegations that state security forces have committed a raft of serious human rights abuses including torture and unlawful killings since he came to power in 2018.

According to a report by Amnesty International, published on Friday, Ethiopia’s military and police in its two most populous regions arbitrarily detained more than 10,000 people, summarily evicted whole families from their homes – some of which were burnt and destroyed – and in some cases were complicit in inter-communal violence targeting minorities.

Federal authorities have not responded to the report, which focuses on the period between January and December 2019 in the regions of Amhara and Oromia.

“Given the gravity and the duration [of the period in which abuses were reported] I cannot believe top officials are not aware of what was happening,” the report’s author, Fisseha Tekle, told the Guardian. “And if they are not then it is a dereliction of duty.”

In Oromia, security forces are waging a counter-insurgency campaign against rebels from the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an armed guerrilla movement demanding more autonomy for Oromos, which returned from exile in 2018 after Abiy removed it from Ethiopia’s list of terrorist organisations.

The move was part of a package of democratic reforms which won the prime minister widespread acclaim and, along with making peace with neighbouring Eritrea, secured him the Nobel peace prize last year. Shortly after becoming prime minister Abiy also confessed that security officials had in the past committed torture, and promised to ensure the sector was fully accountable in the future.

But the OLA has since returned to armed conflict, and accuses the government of failing to deliver its promises of more democracy and self-rule for Oromos.

Fighting in western and southern parts of Oromia has involved targeted killings of local officials and community leaders and what the UN has described as “serious human rights violations”. In Oromia’s Guji district the unrest had driven 80,000 people from their homes by the start of this year.

Amnesty said it had a list of 39 people suspected of supporting the OLA who had been unlawfully executed in two parts of Guji since January 2019. It also said that on a single day in December 2018, soldiers from the federal military killed 13 people in the town of Finchawa in West Guji. One of those killed was an old woman selling milk on the street, according to an eyewitness who spoke to Amnesty.

Security forces are estimated to have detained more than 10,000 men and women suspected of supporting or working for the OLA, among other abuses documented by the organisation.

Many were detained for several months without being charged, in violation of both national and international human rights laws, under conditions which at times amounted to torture, the report found. Detainees were made to undergo two months of “training” in subjects such as constitutionalism, the rule of law and the history of the Oromo people’s struggle.

In Amhara, according to the report, regional police, militia and local vigilante groups engaged in targeted attacks on ethnic Qemant, a minority group demanding more autonomy, in inter-communal violence which resulted in at least 130 deaths last year. In January 2019, at least 58 people were reportedly killed in less than 24 hours and buried in mass graves.

Nobody has yet been held accountable for the atrocity.

Amnesty said it had sought responses to its findings from nine government offices including the defence ministry and the attorney-general’s office but had only received a response from Amhara’s regional security bureau, which denied that state security forces had been involved in any atrocities.

The rights group called on the government to carry out full investigations into human rights violations and to order security forces to stop carrying out unlawful executions, arbitrary arrests and detention, as well as forced evictions and destruction of property belonging to people suspected of supporting opposition political parties or armed groups.

In February last year the former head of the Ethiopian army said it had embarked on “deep institutional reform” as part of the democratic changes sweeping the nation.

The head of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, Daniel Bekele, told the Guardian: “While the Amnesty findings and ongoing reports of killings and arrests in parts of Oromia region should be taken seriously and fully investigated, it is also important to understand the complex nature of the security operations where armed groups are seriously destabilising the affected areas.”

The prime minister’s office said it would put the Guardian’s request for official comment to the peace ministry, which did not respond in time for publication.

Source: The Guardian 

THIS IS JUST A LITTLE ADVICE

By  Teshale Aberra

I came across something in a book I grabbed this morning called “POLITICS BY OTHER MEANS: Law in the struggle against apartheid. 1980-1994.”

Somewhere in this book, it says the following about apartheid South Africa ‘s Courts:

“[They] occasionally invalidated racist actions by the executive or legislator, such as segregation of public accommodation or disenfranchisement of Cape Coloured voters.”

Apartheid South Africa courts were not the ideal types of courts. No sane person is meant to praise that era’s judicial system, as there is nothing praise worthy about them.

And yet, there were instances where they were used by the oppressed majority black people to defend some of their rights. They were used as a channel through which oppression was aired, dramatized, exposed and challenged.

In short, even apartheid South Africa Courts were used to challenge the force of apartheid.

My question is, can Ethiopia’s courts, both Federal or States level draw some lesson from apartheid South Africa’s Courts?

To be honest, I have always thought that way and puzzled by this comparison.

I say so, because, leave alone judges who are paid by the government and frequently removed from office, allegedly, for lack of loyalty to the ruling party, even private attorneys (lawyers) are not free to take up cases which they think could call the attention of the ruling party. Fear of reprisal is real.

We witnessed time and again while lawyers decline cases for fear of reprisal. I am sure the South African lawyers were not totally free to represent the victims of the system of apartheid.

But they tried their best and some judges did what they had to. They are, as judges and their decision as the work of courts is remembered for the good work done.

I think Ethiopia’s courts may try to follow their suit.

Just imagine what could happen if lawyers brought a legal case at Ethiopia’s courts to challenge ‘the recent government measure of deployment of the deffense force, which put a large part of the country under miltary administration, suspending civil and political rights of people in those areas and caused huge loss of life and property, all in clear violation of the constitution!

Perhaps the lawyers who contributed to this kind of effort and the judges who could have made a decision to stop this kind of madness would have been remembered for generations. Above all they could have contributed something towards the continuity of Ethiopia as a state/nation.

More importantly they could’ve contributed in efforts of or wishes to establish a somehow independent judiciary.

Rather than participating in the melodrama and orchestration of breaking the constitution, as we saw on TV yesterday, judges, legal scholars and lawyers better spend their time on devising strategies on how to pull the entire judiciary out of the deep crisis it puts itself in, or the crisis forced on it by the system.

THIS IS JUST A LITTLE ADVICE

UNLAWFUL ARRESTS REMINISCENT OF ETHIOPIA’S UNCHANGED POLITICS: OLF CHAIRMAN

Abdi Regassa is one of the ex-rebels who returned to Ethiopia in 2018 and subsequently became a member of OLF’s Executive Committee. Picture: Social media

Zecharias Zelalem

A4O, May 16/2020 – The Chairman of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) Dawud Ibssa, has told Addis Standard that he was deeply disappointed with the security forces’ recent arrests of nine OLF party members and leaders. The group were rounded up on 29 February from a gathering at a house in Addis Abeba.

While eight of the group were released the next day, one of them, Abdi Regassa, former Commander of Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) who is one of the ex-rebels who returned to Ethiopia in 2018 and subsequently became a member of OLF’s Executive Committee, remains in prison, and the police are denying that he is even in their custody.

“These arrests are unlawful,” said the OLF’s Chairman, whose party hopes to participate in this year’s Ethiopian Elections scheduled for August 2020. “These are our leaders and they’ve broken no laws. Abdi Regassa remains a political prisoner.”

OLF party members who were arrested and released include Mikael Gobena, Dr. Shugit Geleta, Kenessa Ayana, Muhe Raya, Tesfaye Meko, Selemon Teshome, Gamtessa Boru and Abdulkarim Abdurehaman. According to an OLF press statement released on March 04, all of them were handcuffed, shackled together, kept waiting for a lengthy period of time in the rain before being transported to a police station. The press release also revealed that the homes of the nine were ransacked by police officers on the morning of March 1st, after detaining the individuals.

“Security forces broke into the homes of these nine members and searched their houses,” reads part of the statement sent to Addis Standard by the OLF’s youth wing head, Lammi Begna. “Note that the police had neither legal authority nor a court warrant to search these homes or to arrest any of them.”

The government’s refusal to account for the whereabouts of Abdi Regassa has prompted Amnesty International to appeal for his release.

OLF Chairman Dawud Ibssa. Photo: Archive

“Abdi Regassa’s family and lawyers have spent the last couple of days frantically searching police stations and detention centers across Addis Abeba in an attempt to locate him,” Seif Magango, the organization’s Deputy Director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great lakes said in Amnesty’s communique.

The OLF, founded in the the seventies, has among its stated aims the safeguarding of the rights and dignity of the Oromo people. Engaged in armed struggle for most of the time since its establishment, it was among a number of formerly exiled and outlawed political organizations that were invited to return and participate in Ethiopia’s political process in 2018. The then newly appointed Prime Minister was globally lauded for his reforms that decriminalized armed political groups including OLF.

The OLF has since gained a legal recognition as a political party in Ethiopia. But in recent months, hundreds of its supporters and party members have been arrested, often whilst on the campaign trail. On February 19, OLF released dozens of names of its supporters and members who are in police custody.

“The tactics being used against our staff and supporters are reminiscent of the sort of tactics employed by the [EPRDF] led government for 27 years,” Dawud Ibssa said by phone from his office.

According to him, police took away the cellphones, passports, driver’s licenses and even the watches of the nine detained individuals. When the group probed police about getting their items back, they were told “ask our superiors.”

“We are disappointed with the manner in which the government is conducting itself in the run up to the elections,” Dawud said, noticeably dejected. “Our members are second guessing the legitimacy of the process. But we take comfort in the solidarity expressed by members of various other parties representing constituencies in the Oromia, Amhara and other regions. These members have personally reached out to express their sadness at the arrest of our people who were merely practicing their democratic rights.”

In a press briefing held on March 04 at the OLF’s headquarter in Gullele, Addis Abeba, the party’s leaders described the “harassment and intimidation” they are facing today as “unprecedented” in the history of the party since its inception. They also warned that if appropriate measures were not taken on time, “it could ignite a political fire which will be hard to put off.” AS

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS: TOWARDS TIGRAY STATEHOOD?

    

Debretsion G/Michael, President of Tigray Regional state, greeting a crowd of hundreds of thousands during the 45th founding anniversary of TPLF in Mekelle on February 11, 2020.

KJETIL TRONVOLL @KJETILTRONVOLL

(A4O, May 15/2020)– The postponement of the elections and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s proposal on how to solve the upcoming constitutional crisis in Ethiopia, has accentuated Tigrayan nationalism and the process of ensuring de facto Tigray statehood. The current political dynamics in the country, if continued unchecked, may push the Tigrayan discourse even further, as voices advocating for secession and Tigrayan independence are increasingly heard. How come Tigray, the cradle of Ethiopian civilization and the ‘country’s engine’, according to Abiy Ahmed, entertain ideas of statehood and secession? What developments have compelled both the people and some political elites to argue that the perceived best solution may possibly be to leave Ethiopia?

An axiom in conflict resolution is to understand your adversary’s positioning and context, and from that basis interpret her/his argument. What may appear irrational and illegitimate from your point of view, may actually resonance quite well among the followers of your opponent. Knowledge about each other’s positioning and contexts may thus contribute to creating a common frame of communication; i.e. that both sides are equally informed about each other’s views about the issue of contestation at hand they seek to address. This article aims to present how various Tigrayan actors are engaging in the discourse on statehood, to contribute to mitigating continued escalation of the discord.

Political Anxiety

The people of Tigray have for many years been critical towards the regional government over maladministration, corruption, and abuse; and accused TPLF of forgetting Tigray while concentrating on developing Ethiopia. Hence, demands for reforms of TPLF were heard in Tigray already in early 2000s, but were later overtaken by events with the advent of the Oromo, and subsequent Amhara, protest movements. During this period of turmoil, Tigrayans increasingly became the target of hate speech and ethnic slurs in Ethiopia, as they often were collectively blamed for the authoritarian rule and maladministration exhibited by TPLF/EPRDF over the past 27 years. Fear and frustrations about the turn of events led to mixed sentiments among large share of the population in Tigray, as the key slogan for the Oromo protest movement in its initial phase was “Down, down Woyane”.

Conflating the TPLF and the Tigrayan population has been a common, although flawed, assumption exhibited by many Ethiopians throughout the rule of TPLF/EPRDF. Consequently, Tigrayans were collectively blamed and persecuted for the wrongdoings of TPLF, although they themselves had equally suffered under its suppressive politics. A mixed set of feelings were thus prevalent among Tigrayans during the protests:

  • a feeling of loss, as a consequence of the obvious decline of TPLF’s influence at the center;
  • a feeling of betrayal, as the Tigrayan sacrifices during the 17-years struggle against the Derg and their collective effort to develop Ethiopia after 1991 were not given credit or appreciated by rest-Ethiopia;
  • a feeling of anger, against the federal government and EPRDF for not protecting civilian Tigrayans during the Amhara uprising in Gondar and individual attacks throughout Ethiopia;
  • a feeling of anxiety and fear, as they understood the potential devastating consequences against Tigrayans individually and collectively, if the federal government’s security control continued to unravel (as was seen during the protests and after).

The change of leadership in TPLF in 2017 brought hope for reforms to many in Tigray, as their grievances were finally heard and a new reform-friendly leader in Debretsion Gebremichael was elected. The political opening also saw the establishment of new political parties critical to TPLF, as Salsay Weyane and Baitona, advocating a more explicit Tigrayan nationalistic agenda. At the time when the EPRDF crisis peaked with the resignation of chair Hailemariam Dessalegn, most Tigrayans were demanding that TPLF should refocus their efforts to develop Tigray, and leave the control of the center and Ethiopian developments to the Oromo and Amhara fractions. Thus, nation-wide reforms accelerated by PM Abiy and the opening of democratic space and acceptance of pluralism of opinion, were initially equally warmly welcomed in Tigray as elsewhere in Ethiopia.

Before long, however, the feeling of victimhood once again escalated, as the Tigrayans increasingly felt encircled by enemies as PM Abiy engaged in mopping up of ancien règime representatives which happened mostly to be Tigrayans, simultaneously as he befriended their arch enemy President Isaias Afwerki and commenced the Eritrea peace process without consulting Mekelle. Tigrayans felt ‘encircled by enemies’ with their back against the wall with a vengeful and gloating Eritrean Commander in Chief threatening them on their northern border, as Amhara political entrepreneurs on their southern border also turned against Tigray and advocated to forcefully reclaim what they perceived to be their lost territories of Welkeit and Raya, simultaneously as they blocked the main thoroughfares in and out of Tigray regional state to rest-Ethiopia and the capital Addis Ababa. As a consequence of these events, a siege mentality started to fester, influencing Tigrayan interpretations and perceptions of political dynamics in Ethiopia and beyond.

Women members of Tigray’s Regional State’s Special forces staged military parade
during the 45th founding anniversary of TPLF in Mekelle on February 11, 2020.

Claiming de facto Statehood

The aspiration of Tigray statehood, de facto or de jure, has been nurtured by segments of the political strata for decades. The first material evidence of this is the infamous first manifesto of TPLF, which defined an Independent Republic of Tigray as the ultimate objective of their nascent struggle. Although this objective was quickly discarded in favor of political autonomy for Tigray within a democratic Ethiopia in the subsequent revised manifesto, their ‘hidden’ intent of secession and independence for Tigray has been used by the Ethiopianist camp to delegitimize TPLF/EPRDF rule in Ethiopia ever since they took power in 1991.

The current process of claiming de facto statehood in Tigray, however, is a result of both internal grievances and aspirations and external threats and opportunities, and as such ticks all the boxes on how nationalism is one of the most potent tools in politics.

Inception: Harnessing Political Consciousness

The inception of the specific discourse on ‘de facto statehood’ may perhaps be traced to a group of internationally-based Tigrayan scholars offering their academic capacities to assist the development endeavors in Tigray. The first conference of ‘The Global Society of Tigrean Scholars’ (GSTS) was conducted in Mekelle in July 2018, under the heading “Quo Vadis Tigray? Building Knowledge-based Economy and Society in Tigray”, focusing on enhancing Tigray’s economic, political, social, and security advantages. This was followed by second grand conference the following year, drawing more than 2,000 Tigrayan diaspora scholars to Mekelle. During these deliberations, an explicit concern about the political directions Ethiopia was heading under PM Abiy Ahmed underpinned how one should frame and conceive Tigrayan options of development, to secure the protection of hard-won political autonomy, language rights, resource extraction and allocation, cultural traditions, etc.. An increasing concern about the possibility unrest and conflicts in other regions of Ethiopia which could have a spill-over effect to Tigray, as well as the potential emergence of a federal government with hostile intentions towards Tigray, also informed the discussions.

Although Debretsion publicly has appreciated the work and advise from the Tigrayan scholars, TPLF is wary to buy into the full nationalist agenda due to their ideological anchoring. The emergence of the nationalist’s parties of Salsasy Woyane and Baitona, and more recently Tigray Independence Party, has, however, forced TPLF to gravitate towards such an agenda.

Economy: Releasing Their Potential

A more prominently factor pushing Tigray towards de facto statehood is the actual experiences of administering the regional state under the government of Abiy Ahmed. With the rejection of joining the PP, TPLF is an opposition party to the federal government, and all TPLF members of the cabinet where relieved of their duties in early 2020. This of course also influence how the Tigray regional government is perceived and handled by the federal government. Over the last couple of years, Tigray regional government have experienced increasing challenges related to general administration of regional affairs and the transfer of the federal grant. As commented by Dr Abraham Tekeste, vice president of Tigray responsible for administrative affairs and economic development: “The politics have also influenced the administrative relationship, unfortunately in a negative and counterproductive way. I see that the Federal Government use various means to achieve some political gains over us. Not by conviction, but by pressure and intimidation.”[i]

Abraham Tekeste, being the longest serving Minister of Finance in Ethiopia in modern history, knows well how the federal administrative and economic arrangement work. He pointed out several areas where Tigray experienced obstructions either put in place by the federal government, or if undertaken by other political actors, silently consented by PM Abiy. Of these measures negatively impacting Tigray, he listed:

  1. The blockage of main road infrastructure south and west through Amhara regional state, which impedes the trade in/out of Tigray. All trade has to be routed through Afar road, which incurs a higher cost to Tigray producers and consumers. As pointed out by Abraham: “This is a federal highway, and the federal government accepts the blockage. The federal government thus de facto accepts that a partial embargo is put on us.”
  2. The opening of the border to Eritrea greatly benefited the Tigrayan economy in addition to people-to-people reconciliation, and Abraham states: “As this was not in the two governments’ interests, they closed the border again. It hurts us socially and economically.”
  3. Abraham Tekeste was particularly concerned about the impediment put by the federal government on private investments to Tigray. He claimed that:

“Tigrayan, non-Tigrayan, and foreign companies are all intimidated. If they want to do investments in Tigray, they will hear that this is not acceptable. If they are foreigners, they first try by persuasion to convince them to invest in other regions instead. If not heeded to, they will use measures that are more explicit. Like denying the Chinese business delegation to travel to Tigray, for instance.[i] Local Ethiopian investors are directly threatened and intimidated to drop their plans. … So if it continues like this we will suffer economically.”

4. The final impediment raised by Addis Abeba, according to Abraham, was the direct threat uttered by PM Abiy to hold back the federal grant to Tigray regional state. Abraham underlines: “He has not done it yet. But he has threatened us many times. He wants TPLF to join PP and submit to the new politics, stop criticizing his performances.”

This latter point, if effectuated, is clearly the most serious peril, not only to Tigray’s economy, but also to the stability of the Ethiopian federation as such. Abraham Tekeste, known for his calm and thoughtful demeanor, became disconcerted when elaborating on this issue:

It is a prescribed constitutional procedure to dispense federal grants, approved by the House of Representatives. If PM Abiy effectuates a fiscal retaliation on Tigray, he not only breaches the constitution, but he sabotages health, education, water supplies, and service delivery to a segment of the Ethiopian population. That will be equivalent of declaring war on us. I do not know what will happen. However, we have to prepare for any eventuality.

In order to prepare for increased autonomy and economic self-reliance, Tigray regional government is looking into the potential of additional tax and sources of revenue that can be impose regionally under the current constitutional framework. The tax prerogatives of regional governments are personal income tax and taxation of small business enterprises. Additionally, municipal revenue sources are also under the authority of regional governments, and Tigray has recently updated such tariffs.

Security: Building Deterrence Capacity

All Tigrayan actors stress the need for the regional government to build sufficient capacity to deter any attack on their region, as articulated by Abraham Tekeste: “Peace, stability, and security are our no 1 priority. We do not want to be dragged into any confrontation. We do not want Tigray to destabilize. Any conflict is very costly. So the first thing we do is to avoid any conflict.”

A military parade by heavily armed elite members of Tigray regional state’s special forces in the streets of Mekelle, the capital, prior to the celebrations on February 11/2020 of TPLF’s 45th founding anniversary. Image: Social Media

As per constitutional mandate, all regional states have their police force and militia, in addition to so-called Special Forces. The regional security forces’ size, training, equipment, and experiences vary greatly. Historically it has been the Tigray militia that has been the strongest in numbers and battle-hardened as they constituted a large part of the troops in the war against Eritrea; and is still conducting border patrol. Recent years, however, have seen the recruitment of tens of thousands of recruits to particularly Oromia and Amhara regional states’ security forces, so in terms of number they may outmatch Tigray. In terms of experience and capacity, on the other hand, it may tilt in Tigray’s favor. And, the new Tigrayan recruits to the re-organised special forces are of a different caliber than earlier, as explained by Alula Hailu of Salsay Woyane party: “The new generation of soldiers are not brainwashed. Therefore, they are nationalists, not TPLF’ites. You do not have to be a party member to be recruited. They are not joining to save the TPLF, but to defend and save Tigray.” But more than the quality of the training and personnel, Alula stressed: “Tigray has now the best military capacity and capability in the region, because we will fight as one with a mission and dedication if we are attacked. Even I.“[iii]

Armed forces are essential for providing security and deterrence if under threat, but is also the most potent manifestation of nationalism. Lekatit 11 (February 18) is the date of establishment of TPLF and hence the start of the Tigrayan revolution. This year’s Lekatit 11 marked the 45th anniversary of TPLF, and due to the particular political context, it was celebrated in a manner never seen before. Thousands of people flocked to the streets all over Tigray, waving flags and banners, commemorating martyrs and exhibiting solidarity and national cohesion. As observed by a Tigrayan intellectual:

“The Yekatit 11 celebrations this year differed very much from earlier years. This time all people were mobilized. We are feeling that we are under attack, from both Eritrea and Abiy. Everyone was interested to participate in the celebrations to show that we are standing together. It was not perceived as a TPLF anniversary, as before; it was understood as a Tigrayan event. A great display of solidarity and collectiveness. The second reason they differed was the display of military forces and might. Militia, police, and Special Forces were showing off at every tabia and woreda throughout Tigray. It was a surprise to see. We have never seen his before, may be only during the struggle. I guess the reason why they needed to display these forces now is a deterrence against the alliance between Abiy and Isaias. It is clear to see that they are collaborating to crush us. So for the TPLF it was needed to show a strong military force to reassure us that TPLF can defend Tigray against this threat. It is a deterrence strategy towards Eritrea, Amhara, and Abiy.”[iv]

De facto Statehood Fulfilled

As there are no clear definition of what de facto statehood entails, its attributes are thus in the eye of the beholder. Late last year, the official organ of TPLF, the Woyen magazine, had a special issue out on the “6th National Election, the survival of our country and our regional state.” All its 48 pages were dedicated to discussing the 2020 election process, and the outlooks and dangers associated with it as seen from Tigray. In particular, it warned about the realignment of political forces in the country, and argued strongly against a possible postponement of the elections originally scheduled to be conducted in end of May 2020. In its concluding sections, the question on “what shall be done” in maintaining lasting peace and development in Tigray; the following paragraph summed up the regional government’s strategy in such concern:

“To ensure the security of our people and to fiercely protect the relative freedom of Tigray and thereby strengthen our capacity to accomplish all kinds of tasks we started to work on and to further strengthen our capability of defending ourselves and to show to our enemies and friends that we are capable of doing that even when it comes to using force. Specifically, to accomplish our development endeavors and ensure our people all round safety and security, and to continue our efforts in providing equitable benefits, we need to maintain the stability of Tigray and make it an enduring exemplary of peace by having full-fledged government structures (de facto status).”[v]

De facto statehood is here interpreted as a set of technical capacities and capabilities affixed to an administrative entity, in this case the Tigray regional state. The regional government, in collusion with Tigrayan academics and business investors at home and in diaspora, civil society, and the people at large, seems all to pull in the same direction to secure these capacities and capabilities. As summed up by the vice president of Tigray, Abraham Tekeste: “Right now Tigray has all attributes of statehood: law and order, security, social services. So we are a de facto state.”[vi]

Beyond de facto Statehood – Secession?

The technical process of constructing de facto statehood, to unite a distinct people to a defined territory through common and standardized administrative procedures, is basically completed in Tigray. Will the nationalists’ needs and wants hence be fulfilled? Or will more profound aspirations and desires drive the process further towards independence? History is fraught with nationalist movements running its full course: either the successful establishment of the coveted nation-state, or its annihilation in the pursuit of it in face of an overpowering adversary force.

Tigray has all the fundamentals needed for a robust nationalist movement to take root with the ultimate objective to seek independence and sovereignty:

  • A commonly shared historical narrative and myth of origin stretching back two millennia or more;
  • A cohesive identity, common language and culture; and a homogenous population;[vii]
  • A historical homeland saturated with blood by sacrifices made to defend it from foreign aggression throughout centuries;
  • A political consciousness shaped by internal aspirations and external marginalization;
  • An economy and livelihood with great potential, but perceived to be held back by outsiders;
  • A deep-rooted warrior culture and military capacity, in the face of felt victimhood and external security threats.
Debretsion Gebremichael during the interview with The Reporter Ethiopia Newspaper in June 2019

Nationalism is not an ideology anchored in rational calculations or bound by administrative procedures and institutions of checks-and-balances; whence created it often appears unstoppable. If so, the next step for the nationalist movement beyond the demand for de facto statehood would thus be for secession and sovereignty. Whether this will be the case in Tigray, remains to be seen. The argument for secession is existing however – and appears swelling –  something also acknowledge by the TPLF chair and regional head Debretsion Gebremichael when he was asked by the newspaper The Reporter whether the people of Tigray wanted to secede from Ethiopia:

Yes, there is a growing feeling among the public. It is only us [TPLF] who are saying that we shouldn’t resort to such feelings. We, as the regional government, are telling our people that those problems will be solved and we are telling them to be patient. However, the pressure from the public is different. … All those things pushed the people to the edge. They feel hopeless and are saying that we should secede from Ethiopia.”

It seems however that TPLF is split on the issue of secession, although the dominant fraction still remains loyal to a federal Ethiopia. The political opposition in Tigray is also split on the issue of independence, with only one party arguing outright for secession, namely Tigray Independence Party. However, the two opposition parties with the assumed strongest popularity in the region, Salsay Woyane and Baitona, both have secession as an optional strategy B. As explained by the Baitona chair Kidane Amane: “Most Tigrayans are not separatists. The majority want to remain in Ethiopia. But they may be pushed into separatism if the instability and persecution continues.”[viii]

The strength of the nationalist cum secessionist movement will thus react to and reflect the political developments in Ethiopia at large in the near future. Unfortunately, however, finding solace in Ethiopian politics these days may be a stretch too sanguine even for die-hard optimists. Most people in Tigray, be that party leaders, intellectuals, or the common ‘man in the street’, fear a negative development. In particular the election was identified as a triggering event for ensuing chaos. If PP wins, it will be understood as a continued centralization of the Ethiopian state, fueling the nationalist demand for secession. However, most respondents predicted an election process collapsing into violence and instability. ‘Aboy’ Sebhat Nega, the ‘father’ of TPLF, outlined a dramatic scenario for Ethiopia in the near future:

“What will come? Civil war. Civil war is inevitable. 100%. Either before election or for sure after. The consequences will be terrible. The civil war will be all-embracing; between regional states over territory, intra-region between various elites, and between religions. It will be all-encompassing. The triggering factor will be a cancelled or rigged election.”[ix]

A similar prediction was echoed by Baitona chair Kidane Amane:

“The tensions are increasing. The government institutions are paralyzed or hijacked by certain groups. The Arabs are fueling the chaos with money. You will likely have a civil war, maybe even prior to the elections. War seems inevitable. This may very well be the war leading to Ethiopia’s disintegration. We are going back to the Era of Princes,[x] where we had no center.”[xi]

Men members of Tigray’s Regional State’s Special forces staged military parade
during the 45th founding anniversary of TPLF in Mekelle on February 11, 2020.

It seems that most Tigrayan observers and analysts predict in best case a much weakened federal authority and a transition to a confederal type of arrangement, possibly with ‘split sovereignty’ between the center and regional states; or in the worst case an implosion of power and the disintegration of Ethiopia. These two scenarios, and everything in-between, are possibly all too pessimistic; but as stated optimists are hard to find in Ethiopia these days, let alone in Tigray. The most recent development is pushing towards a political confrontation between TPLF and PP; between the regional state government and the federal authority, as stated in TPLF’s Executive Committee statement from May 4, 2020:

“Even though TPLF is ready to play its role in good faith as part of various national efforts aimed at counteracting the destabilizing consequences of this phenomenon, it will never accept the casual jettisoning of the right of self-administration made possible by the constitutional system that the people of Tigray erected through tremendous sacrifices. To that end, together with the people of Tigray as well as other political actors that fully recognize the Tigrean people’s right of self-administration, we will make region-wide preparations, including the holding of regional elections, to fend against conditions that might imperil the rights of our people.”[xii]

The TPLF decision to move forward with conducting regional elections, was not well received by PM Abiy Ahmed, who threatened that: “we will be forced to take action against those who attempt to hold fake elections”.

History is ripe with cases on how nationalistic sentiments are enhanced in the face of external threats; a clear and present danger to their collective safety and security is exactly the optimal tool for nationalists to prove that the only way to salvation is independence. It rests thus upon the federal government to reassure the Tigrayan constituency that they belong in Ethiopia and that their rights and privileges according to the Constitution are protected. A law lecturer at Mekelle University perhaps said it the best:

Ethiopia is a choice to us. It is like an elective course. We select it and stay if we are comfortable with it. If not, we leave. This is the general perception among the youth. We can be in a partnership with other groups on equal terms. If not, we disconnect the partnership.”[xiii]

__________________________________//___________________________________

Editor’s Note: Kjetil Tronvoll is Professor of peace and conflict studies, Bjorknes University College, Norway.

He can be reached at Kjetil.Tronvoll@bhioslo.no


Footnote:

[i] Interviewed by K. Tronvoll, 27.02.20, Mekelle, Tigray.

[ii] Late 2019 a Chinese official business delegation èn route to Mekelle was stopped at Bole by NISS and denied to enter the flight. No specific reason was given. Subsequently Ethiopian MFA issued a statement denying their involvement in preventing the delegation to travel to Tigray.  

[iii] Interviewed by K. Tronvoll, 26.02.20, Mekelle, Tigray.

[iv] Interviewed by K. Tronvoll, 25.02.20, Mekelle, Tigray.

[v] Woyen Magazine, September-December 2019, Page 40, paragraph three (unofficial translation).

[vi] Interviewed by K. Tronvoll, 27.02.20, Mekelle, Tigray.

[vii] This is with certain modifications, of course. You have Irob, Kunama and other minorities within Tigray; in addition to border populations in certain areas (Raya for instance) which may have a more fluid identity. However, these groups taken together constitute a very small minority of the total Tigrayan population. 

[viii] Interviewed by K. Tronvoll, 26.02.20, Mekelle, Tigray.

[ix] Interviewed by K. Tronvoll, 26.02.20, Mekelle, Tigray.

[x] Era of Princes (Zemene Mesafint) was the period between 1769 to 1855 where there was no Negus Negast (Emperor) and the country was split between various warring provinces trying to claim the throne. 

[xi] Interviewed by K. Tronvoll, 26.02.20, Mekelle, Tigray.

[xii] See: https://www.facebook.com/1056328604419403/posts/3162356003816642/?d=n

[xiii] Interviewed by K. Tronvoll, 01.03.20, Mekelle, Tigray.

ዳውድ ኢብሳ: አንጋፋ ታጋይ እና የኦነግ መሪ

ትውልዱ ሆሮ ጉዱሩ ሲሆን ከአራት ኪሎ ዩንቨርስቲ በስታትስቲክስ ተመርቋል በተማሪዎች እንቅስቃሴ ወቅት ደርግ ለሁለት አመታት አሰሮ ፈትቶት ነበር ከእስር ሲለቀቅ ወደ ኦነግ የትጥቅ ትግል ገባ ። ኦነግ በ1968 ሃያ ስምንት ማእከላዊ ኮሚቴ ስመረጥ ይህ ሰው አንዱ በመሆን ተመረጠ ፡፡ ወቅቱ 1971 ነው ኦነግ ትግሉን በምእራብ ኢትዮጵያ ለማሰፋፋት ሲወስን ዳውድ ኢብሳ እና የኦቦ ሌንጮ ለታ ወንድም አባ ጫላ ለታ ዋናና ምክትል ሆነው የምእራቡን ትግል እንዲመሩ ተመድበው በጥቅሉ 17 የሰው ሀይል በመያዝ በሱዳን በኩል አቋረጠው ወለጋ ቤጊና ጊዳሚ አከባቢ እንቅሰቃሴ ይጀምራሉ፡፡

ደርግ ይህን የኦነግ የምእራብ እንቅስቃሴ ለማፈን ትኩረት ሰጥቶ ማጥናት ይጀምራል፡፡ በወቅቱ የጊዳሚ ወረዳ አሰተዳዳሪ ሂካ መሳዲ እና የወለጋ ክ/ሀገር አሰተዳዳሪ ንጉሴ ፋንታ የኦነግን የትግል ጅማሮ ለማጨናገፍ አንድ መላ ይዘይዳሉ፡፡ በጃሌ ዳውድ ኢብሳ ይመሩ ከነበሩት 16 ታጋዮች የአንዱ ወንድም ዘካሪያስ ሾሮ ይባላል፡፡

.የጊዳሚ ወረዳ አስተዳዳሪ ደነበረው ሂካ መሳዲ ዘካርያስን ጠርቶ እንዲህ የሚል ግዳጅ ይሰጠዋል። ወንድምህንና ጓደኞቹን ቤትህ እራት ትጋብዛቸዋለህ የምንሰጥህን መርዝ ደግሞ ምግቡ ውስጥ ትጨምርና ታበላቸዋለህ፡፡ ይህን የማትፈጽም ከሆነ ከእነ ቤተሰብህ ትገደላለህ! ከብትህ ይዘረፋል! መሬትህን ታጣለህ! ዘርህ ከምድረ ገጽ ይጠፋል…..”
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ዘካሪያስ ግዴታ ሆኖበት እንደ ተሰማማ የደህንነቱ ሪፖርት ላይ ተጠቅሷል፡፡” ወንድሜንስ እንዴት ብዬ እገላለው…” ብሎ አቅማምቶ ነበር፡፡ የተሰጠው ምላሽም “….እንግዲያውስ ከቻልክ ወንድምህን ለይተህ እንዳይበላ አድርገው፡፡ ካልተቻለ ግን አብሮ ይሙት! ወንድምህ አገር ሊያጠፋ የተቀጠረ ከሃዲ ነው” በማለት በግልጽ ይነግሩታ፡፡

..ይህ ዝግጅት ከተደረገ ቦሀላ የገበሬ ልብስ የለበሱ ወታደሮች በአከባቢው አድፈጠው ዘካርያስ ሾሮ እንዳያመልጥ ይጠብቁት ነበር፡፡ ምግብ ውሰጥ የሚጨመር መረዝ ከአዲሰ አበባ ተልኮ በንጉሴ ፋንታ በኩል ለሂካ መሳዲ ተሰጠ፡፡ሂካ መሳዲ ለዘካርያስ አሰረከበው፡፡

…በንጉሴ ፋንታ ትእዛዝ የተገዛው ሙክት ከተላከ ቦሀላ ዘካርያስ ለወንድሙና ለጓደኞቹ የራት ግብዣ ጥሪ እንዲላክላቸው ተደረገ፡፡ ቀጥሎም በጉ ታርዶ ጥሩ ምግብ አዘጋጀ፡፡ በዚያን ሰሞን 17ቱየኦነግ ታጋዮች ለሁለት ተከፍለው ነበር የሚንቀሳቀሱት፡፡ አባ ጫላ ዘጠኝ ራሱን ሆኖ በሌላ አቅጣጫ ይንቀሳቀሰ ነበር፡፡ ዳውድ ኢብሳ የሚመራት ቲም የዘካርያስን የራት ግብዣ ተቀብለው ማምሻው ላይ በገበታው ዙሪያ ተገኙ፡፡

በሰአቱም ዘካርያስ ወንድሙን ለይቶ ለማሰቀረት ሳይቻለው ቀረ፡፡ “…አንተ ቆይ ቦሃላ ትበላለህ ..”ቢለውም ወንድሙ አሻፈረኝ ብሎ ለገበታው ቀረበ፡፡ ወንድሙና ጓደኞቹ በመረዝ የተለውሰውን ምግብ ሲበሉ ዘካርያስ የጎጆውን ምሰሶ ተደግፎ በትካዜ እና በሰቆቃ ይመለከታቸው ነበር፡፡
ዳውድ ኢብሳ ከምግቡ ትንሽ ቀማምሶ ደጅ ጥበቃ ላይ የነበረው ጓደኛቸውን ለመተካት ገበታውን ትቶ ወደ ደጅ ወጣ፡፡ ሌሎች የተመረዘውን ምግብ መብላቱን ቀጠሉ ነገር ግን ብዙም ሳይቆዩ መላ ሰውነታቸው እንደ እሳት እያቃጠላቸው እየጮሁ ይወድቁ ጀመረ፡፡

ዘካርያስ የታናሽ ወንድሙን ሬሳ እጁ ላይ ታቀፈ፡፡ ዳውድ በወቅቱ ብዙም የተመገበ ባይሆንም ከመመረዝ አላመለጠም፡፡ በጥበቃው ላይ እያለ ሰውነቱ ሲቃጠልበት መመረዛቸው ስለገባው በፍጥነት ቅጠላ ቅጠልና አፈር እየቃመ ውሃ በብዛት ጠጣበት፡፡ ደግሞ ደጋግሞ አሰታወከ፡፡ሆኖም ከመውደቅ አልዳነም፡፡ራሱን ስቶ እንደ ጓደኞቹ ከዘካርያስ ጓሮ ወደቀ፡፡ የገበሬ ልብስ ለብሰው በአከባቢው አድፍጠው ውጤቱን ይጠብቁ የነበሩ ወታደሮች በተያዘላቸው ቀጠሮ ዘካርያስ ቤት ሲደረሱ ሰባቱ ታጋዮች ሞተው ዳውድ ኢብሳ ግን ነፍሱን እንደሳተ አገኙት፡፡

ዳውድነን ይዘው ወደ ደምቢዶሎ ከነፉ፡፡ የኦነግን ሚስጥር ከእሱ ለማግኘት ፍላጎት ሰለ ነበራቸው ፈጣን ህክምና ሰጥተው ህይውቱን አተረፉት፡፡ ቀጥሎም ከደምቢ ዶሎ ወደ ነቀምት አዘዋውረውት ተጨማሪ ህክምና ሰጡት፡፡
ነቀምት ላይ ትንሽእንዳገገመ ወደ እስር ቤት በመውሰድ ገልብጠው ይገርፉት ጀመር፡፡ በወቅቱ ስለ ሁኔታው የተገኘው ማስረጃ የወለጋው የደህንነት ሪፖርት እንደሚገልጸው አሉ የተባሉትን የምርመራ እርምጃዎችን
የተጠቀሙበት ቢሆንም ከዳውድ ኢብሳ አንደበት አንዳችም ሚሰጢር ሊያገኙ አልቻሉም፡፡ሲያቅታቸው ወደ አዲሰ አበባ ወደ ማእከላዊ ላኩት፡፡

እዚያም በቤንዚንና በቆሻሻ ውሃ የሞላ በርሜል ውሰጥ እየደፈቁ መረመሩት፡፡ ለመሞት ዝግጁ ሰለ ነበር አንዳችም የተነፈሰው ነገር የለም፡፡ደግመው ደጋግመው ማእከላዊና አለም በቃኝ እያመላለሱ በተለያዪ ማሰቃያ ሰልቶች እንደ መረመሩት የደህንነቱ መ/ቤት ሰነድ በዝርዝር ያብራራል፡፡
ዳውድ ኢብሳ! በአለም በቃኝ አምስት አመታት ታሰረ፡፡ በሂደትም ከመላመድ ብዛት ጠባቂ የነበረውን ፖሊስ ማሳመን ቻለ። ለህክምና ሲወጡም ከሁለት ባልደረቦቹ ጋር ከሆስፒታል አምልጦ ወለጋ ገባ፡፡
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የቤንሻጉል ጫካዎችን በማቋረጥ ዳግም ኦነግ ከአለበት ቦታ ለመድረሰ የሁለት ሳምንት የሌሊት ጉዞ አድርጓል፡፡ እሱ መርዝ በልቶ ሲማረክ ምእራብ ወለጋ ጫካ ውሰጥ የቀሩት አባጫላ ለታ እና ዘጠኝ ጓደኞቹ ከአንድ ብርጌድ በላይ ሰራዊት ሆነው ነበር የጠበቁት፡፡ የመሪያቸውን በህወይት መመለስ ማመን ያልቻሉት ታጋዮች በታላቅ ደሰታ ተቀበሉት!!
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ይህ ተአምር ከሞት_የተረፈ_በብልጠቱ_ከደርግ_እስር_ቤት ያመለጠው ሰው የዛሬው_ የኦነግ_ ሊቀመንበር_ ጃሌ_ ዳውድ_ኢብሳ_ነው ፡፡ ዳውድ ኢብሳ ባመነበት የትግል መንገድ ለኦሮሞ ህዝብ ህልውና ሲል ሲታገል እና ሲያታግል እድሜው የጨረሰ ጀግና ነው ። ታሪክ ታሪክ ነው እና የምናውቀውን አጋራናችሁ ።